After entering March, the overall performance of polyester filament is weak, and the overall lack of demand in the textile market is one reason, but under the influence of the decline in international oil prices, the upstream products continue to weaken is also an important factor. Recently, polyester upstream raw materials have shown a trend of bottoming out.

PTA and ethylene glycol bottomed out and rebounded

PTA, last week the domestic PTA market weak operation. At the beginning of last week, investors' concerns about the economy and energy demand prospects caused by the US tariff policy led to pressure on oil prices, which was negative for PTA; PTA supply and demand margin improved, polyester enterprises promotion, the formation of a boost to the market, some businesses on the bargain purchase; With the cost side still weak, the market lack of substantial positive boost, the PTA market remained weak last week; Near the end of last week, oil prices were slightly stronger, and PTA was also strong.

Ethylene glycol, last week East China ethylene glycol market prices fell first and then rose. The ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main port decreased slightly by 5,000 tons to 633,200 tons, and the inventory pressure exerted a certain suppression effect on the price of ethylene glycol, but the destocking trend also provided support for the price rebound. With the gradual recovery of downstream polyester and other industries, the demand for ethylene glycol has gradually increased. However, even if the upstream raw materials began to gradually stop falling and stabilize, they still could not resist the pace of the decline of polyester filament.

Insufficient market demand support

On the whole, although the upstream crude oil market in the early stage is relatively weak under Trump's various tariff policies and OPEC+ production increase expectations, it is far from enough to explain the long-term horizontal trend of polyester filament after the Spring Festival to the recent horizontal decline.

As long as there is no promotion, weaving enterprises seem to be determined not to stockpile inventory, and even the margin of profit is not large enough, and now it has been unable to stimulate production and sales. Last week, weaving end weekly weaving load was flat at 74%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing started to fall, down 3% to 76%. Weaving orders are still poor, the factory as a whole in the inventory, of which clothing fabrics are slightly better than home textiles, printing and dyeing also appeared partial home textile construction phenomenon. In the case of high inventory and weak orders and weak future market prices, the procurement of weaving raw materials remains weak, mainly consuming inventory, and the current stock is mostly in 5-10 days, and a small part is around 1 month.

In the short term, the terminal demand is delayed, the profit situation of conventional grey cloth can not improve, no matter how the upstream raw material support situation, the situation of polyester filament stock is still difficult to turn a corner.

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