The long-dormant polyester chain recently showed bright eyes, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filament have risen significantly. Behind this, who is paying for this rise?

PX: Showing a bottoming rally

Since June, international oil prices have stabilized and rebounded due to expectations of improvement in the economy and demand, compounded by concerns about summer supply shortages. With a positive buying atmosphere in the market, PX prices have bottomed out and rebounded.

The market price of PX has risen recently. As of June 26, the average price of PX in Asia was $1,041.40 / ton CFR China and $1,019.40 / ton FOB South Korea, a month-on-month increase of $3.40 / ton, or 0.33%. Sinopec PX settlement price in June 8670 yuan/ton.

Gasoline demand peak season to boost the trend of crude oil, there is support on the cost side, polyester end of the production cut news, boost the downstream PTA market, absolute price and basis strength, to bring support for PX, PX prices rose this week.

PTA futures: Near the year's high

On July 3, the PTA main contract TA2409 increased sharply, breaking through the previous high, as of the close of the PTA mainstream contract rose 112 yuan to 6096 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.87%, a large increase of more than 230,000 hands in a day, the price is close to the year's shock high.

The seasonal accumulation pressure of PTA in the first quarter is large, the spot surplus is high, the non-main port source warehouse receipt pressure is high, the overall performance is weak, and the monthly difference of the basis is reversed. In the second quarter, PTA maintenance increased, and the demand for polyester maintained more than 90% of the high start-up, and PTA began to continue to go to the warehouse. According to Zhongpu data, by the end of June, PTA has digested the cumulative amount of the first quarter, and the overall social inventory is in neutral, while the goods that can be circulated in Hong Kong are at a low level.

Ethylene glycol futures price: hit a new high in nearly half a year

Since June 19, ethylene glycol futures bottomed out and rebounded, and the price center of gravity gradually rose. As of the close of July 1, the ethylene glycol main EG2409 contract rose 1.19%, a new high in nearly 6 months, and the ethylene glycol futures price once again returned to the high point at the beginning of this year.

According to Liu Siqi, analyst of Zijin Tianfeng futures, as of now, ethylene glycol has continued to be stored in the second quarter, the port inventory has dropped below 750,000 tons, and the downstream stock is also at a low level in previous years, and the pressure on the storage is still not large in July and August.

"Based on the continuous destocking in the first half of the year (especially from March to May), the glycol social stock has dropped to a low level, which provides a good basis for the upward movement of the disk." CCF senior analyst Shi Jiaping said that on this basis, due to the low status of non-mainstream inventory and the unexpected load of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed, the main port shipments continue to remain high, which is also a reason to support the strong market sentiment. In addition, the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol in the second half of the year is forecast to be benign, and the short-term valuation repair may not quickly bring about the return of supply, which is also a reason for this round of capital increase trading.

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